Global Smartphone Market to Grow 1% in 2025 Amid Economic Headwinds

Global Smartphone Market to Grow 1% in 2025 Amid Economic Headwinds

The global smartphone market is projected to grow by 1% in 2025, reaching 1.24 billion units, according to the latest forecast from IDC’s Worldwide Quarterly Mobile Phone Tracker. This marks a slight improvement from the previous 0.6% growth estimate, though still down from the 2.6% originally projected earlier this year.

IDC attributes the upward revision to stronger-than-expected demand for Apple’s iPhones, with iOS shipments expected to grow 3.9% in 2025. Robust replacement demand is also helping to counteract economic pressures like inflation, weak consumer spending, and ongoing tariff concerns.

Despite global macroeconomic headwinds, IDC expects momentum in the smartphone sector to continue into 2026, signaling a resilient market. The firm projects a 1.5% compound annual growth rate (CAGR) for smartphone shipments from 2024 to 2029.

Regional Trends and Market Dynamics

Growth in regions such as the U.S. (3.6%), Middle East and Africa (6.5%), and Asia Pacific excluding China (0.8%) is expected to help offset a 1% decline in China. IDC revised China’s outlook downward from an earlier 3% growth estimate, citing the phasing out of government subsidies and ongoing economic challenges.

IDC’s senior research director Nabila Popal noted that while tariff volatility remains a concern, it has had limited short-term impact on most smartphone makers. She emphasized the importance for OEMs to diversify production and target specific regional growth areas.

Shifting Focus from Volume to Value

Although overall shipment growth remains modest, the market’s value is rising. Average selling prices (ASPs) are expected to increase 5% in 2025, driving a 6% rise in global smartphone revenue. Rather than focusing on unit volumes, manufacturers are investing in premium features such as foldable designs, generative AI, slimmer form factors, and improved camera systems.

Aggressive marketing and financing options are also helping consumers access higher-end devices, reinforcing the industry’s shift toward premiumization.

AI and Foldables: The Next Growth Drivers

Generative AI is becoming a major differentiator in the smartphone market. IDC’s Anthony Scarsella expects shipments of GenAI-enabled smartphones to exceed 370 million units in 2025, representing around 30% of total shipments. By 2029, these devices could account for over 70% of the market, as AI capabilities expand to mid-tier models.

Foldable phones are also gaining traction, with year-over-year growth projected at 6% in 2025, up from 4% in 2024. IDC expects the segment to continue growing—6% in 2026 and 11% in 2027—driven by improvements in durability, lower prices, and a broader range of options from brands like Samsung, Google, Huawei, Honor, and Motorola.

However, despite the progress, foldables are expected to remain a niche market, making up less than 3% of global shipments by 2029.